The Craft of Political Analysis for Diplomats by Smith Raymond F

Author:Smith, Raymond F.
Language: eng
Format: epub, pdf
Publisher: University of Nebraska Press
Published: 2011-03-14T16:00:00+00:00

EXAMPLE 2: CHANGING MOTIVATIONS OF ISRAELI SETTLERS IN THE OCCUPIED TERRITORIES

CONFIDENTIAL

R 201400z May 92

FM AMCONSUL JERUSALEM

TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7444

INFO AMEMBASSY AMMAN

AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS

AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV

CONFIDENTIAL JERUSALEM 01953

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR

TAGS; PBTS, PREL, PINR, KPAL, PHUM, IS, US

SUBJECT: CHANGING MOTIVATIONS OF ISRAELI SETTLERS IN

THE OCCUPIED TERRITORIES

1. CONFIDENTIAL — ENTIRE TEXT

SUMMARY

2. Attitudes among the 110,000 Israeli settlers in the occupied territories are hardening. Conventional wisdom over the past decade held that, following the wave of ideological settlement between 1977 and 1983, most Israelis who have moved across the green line since then were motivated primarily by economic incentives rather than by religious or nationalistic concerns. A majority of the settlers were seen more as opportunistic than political. Many settlement-watchers, however, now believe that a sizable proportion of those supposedly economic settlers have in fact become ideologues after actually living in the territories for a few years. The Intifada and the ongoing Arab-Israeli talks have polarized opinion even in commuter settlements and have driven many previously non-political settlers into the militantly nationalistic camp.

3. As a result, experts believe, any attempt by a future Israeli government to dismantle some settlements, limit construction, or grant meaningful autonomy to Palestinians would likely provoke fierce resistance, probably including civil disobedience, within a broad cross-section of the settler population. Some of our interlocutors speculate that as many as one-fourth of today’s settlers — 27,000 people — might refuse to leave the territories even if the Israeli government ordered them to do so as part of a negotiated solution.

END SUMMARY CONVENTIONAL WISDOM ON SETTLER MOTIVES

4. Israelis move across the green line into settlements in the occupied West Bank and Gaza for a variety of reasons which fall into three broad categories: religious, nationalistic, and economic. Religious motivations inspire the most tenacious and uncompromising settlers. For these people, all of the land west of the Jordan (and, for some, much of the area east of the river as well) falls within the area divinely promised to the Jews in biblical times. They believe that the 1967 war and the subsequent opening of Judea, Samaria and Gaza for Jewish settlement are a fulfillment of prophecy. Settlement rabbis [names redacted] have explained to Congenoff that “resettlement” of these areas is a religious obligation that will hasten the coming of the Messiah. No contemporary argument can dissuade settlers motivated primarily by these religious dictates.

5. Nationalistic motivations focus on Israel’s need to retain the West Bank and Gaza for security in the face of hostile Arab neighbors. According to this reasoning, the pre-1967 borders are untenable, and the territories serve, at a minimum, as a much-needed buffer security zone. The presence of large numbers of Jewish civilian settlements in the occupied territories is intended to make it impossible for any Israeli government to contemplate ceding these areas to Arab sovereignty in the future. Some settler ideologues contend that the settlements themselves enhance Israeli security by holding the high ground, controlling the major arteries, and providing the Army with safe havens in the West Bank.

6. Economic

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